Ge Dai

A Chinese term meaning “skipping a generation,” used to describe a system whereby China’s president chooses his successor’s successor.

Speculating that President Hu Jintao’s protégé, Hu Chunhua, looks likely to become China’s “sixth generation” leader – the successor to President Hu Jintao’s successor Vice-President Xi Jinping – The Straits Times reported:

Yet, such is Chinese Communist Party (CCP) politics today that succession planning is believed to be done years in advance and with increasing predictability.

Even within the black box of elite CCP politics, analysts are discerning a growing pattern in its leadership transition, one which the incumbent chooses not his immediate successor, but the one after that.

The trend has been labelled as ge dai, or “skipping a generation” method of succession, by the experts, who believe it is becoming more institutionalised and stable.

According to The Straits Times, this tradition of nominating subsequent presidential successors began in the 1990s with Deng Xiaoping, who appointed not only his immediate successor, Jiang Zemin, but also Jiang’s successor, Hu Jintao. Jiang in turn nominated Hu’s successor, Xi Jinping, and now it appears that President Hu is attempting to follow suit.

“By appointing Xi’s successor, Hu hopes to ensure that his record in history will be safeguarded because Hu Chunhua will somehow prevent Xi from going too far in reverting or displacing Hu’s ideas and policies,” said Hong Kong-based analyst Willy Lam.

But while the ge dai system has no bloodshed so far — as opposed to Mao Zedong and Deng purging their own chosen successors — analysts warned that it has its downsides too.

“It means that up and coming leaders may not have to prove themselves, and could mean that mediocre politicians are allowed to gain office for the sake of stability,” said Prof Jeremy Paltiel of Carleton University in Canada.